A Numbers Game

Both Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan are jostling for support to form the government. It's become a numbers game.

 

For PN, an alliance with their Sabah counterpart GRS and Sarawak's GPS will produce 101 seats (73+6+22). With the addition of PBM, Warisan, Parti KDM and the 2 Sabah independents, this tally increases to 108 seats (101+1+3+1+2). 

 

This is still not enough to form a government – which need 111 seats under the current Parliament. As party hopping is not an option, PN must then get BN's support in order to make the numbers. 

 

One possible solution is for PN to ally with BN's seven Sabah MPs – who are in government together with GRS. This will give PN 115 seats in Parliament. 

 

[Note: Sabah BN has autonomy from their peninsula counterparts – and backing a PN prime minister would not violate the anti-hopping law. And Umno have not amended their party rules to prevent MPs from going against the party – by making it a "voluntary resignation" offence]. 

 

This also opens up PN's opportunities to secure support from BN MPs who are not aligned with UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi for support in forming a government. 

 

As for PH, an alliance with GPS, PBM, Warisan, Parti KDM and the Sabah independents would get them just enough seats, i.e. 111 seats (82+22+1+3+1+2) – a simple majority. 

 

[Note: As per NST at 8:19 AM, PBS president Maximus Ongkili under the GRS banner has lost the Kota Marudu parliamentary seat which he tried to defend for the seventh time to Parti KDM's Wetrom Bahanda]. 

 

However, they must win at least one of the two seats pending, i.e. Baram in Sarawak and Padang Serai in Kedah – whose elections have been postponed – in order to get a 112-seat simple majority once those vacant seats have been filled up. 

 

After all, Padang Serai is a mixed seat which PH-PKR have held since 2008 – making it a possible winnable seat if PH can ensure a high enough turnout.

 

All the above are convoluted arrangements that will require a lot of horse-trading. 

 

I reckon PH must be pragmatic and team up with BN – and only then, can we see a way out of this GE15 imbroglio. With PH's 82 and BN's 30, you get 112. 

 

It's a no-brainer, really.

 

If I may add, PH should send out feelers to both GPS and Warisan. If they agree to join in, it'll boost the numbers in favor of PH.

 

I've said my piece. As of now, the process to form a government is very much up in the air. We can only wait and see.