How much is too much for a caffeine fix?
Prices like £5 in London or $7 in New York for a cup of coffee may be unthinkable for some – but could soon become a reality thanks to a "perfect storm" of economic and environmental factors in the world's top coffee-producing regions.
The cost of unroasted beans traded in global markets is now at a "historically high level", says analyst Judy Ganes. And experts blame a mix of troubled crops, market forces, depleted stockpiles – and the world’s smelliest fruit.
So how did we get here, and just how much will it impact your morning latte?
In 2021, a freak frost wiped out coffee crops in Brazil, the world's largest producer of Arabica beans – those commonly used in barista-made coffee. This bean shortfall meant buyers turned to countries like Vietnam, the primary producer of Robusta beans, that are typically used in instant blends. But farmers there faced the region’s worst drought in nearly a decade.
Climate change has been affecting the development of coffee plants (Genus: Coffea; family: Rubiaceae), according to Will Frith, a coffee consultant based in Ho Chi Minh City, in turn impacting bean yields. And then Vietnamese farmers pivoted to the durian (Genus: Durio).
The fruit is proving popular in China and is in high demand. And so, Vietnamese farmers are replacing their coffee crops with durian to cash in on this emerging market. In fact, Vietnam's durian market share in China almost doubled between 2023 and 2024, and some estimate the crop is five times more lucrative than coffee.
"There’s a history of growers in Vietnam being fickle in response to market price fluctuations, over-committing, and then flooding the market with quantities of their new crop", Frith says. As they flooded China with durians, Robusta coffee exports were down 50% in June compared to the previous June, and stocks were now "near depleted", according to the International Coffee Organisation.
Exporters in Colombia, Ethiopia, Peru and Uganda have stepped up, but have not produced enough to ease a tight market.
"Right at [the] time when things started to rev up for demand of Robusta, is right when the world was scrambling for more supply", explains Ganes. This means Robusta and Arabica beans are now trading at near-record highs on commodity markets.
But industry figures caution that a high market price for coffee may not necessarily translate into higher retail prices.
Felipe Barretto Croce, CEO of FAFCoffees in Brazil, agrees that consumers are "feeling the pinch" as consumer prices have risen. But he argues that is "mostly due to inflationary costs in general", such as rent and labor, rather than the cost of beans.
Consultancy Allegra Strategies estimate beans contribute less than 10% of the price of a cup of coffee. "Coffee is still very cheap, as a luxury good, if you make it at home".
Besides, the cost of lower-quality beans rising means high-quality coffee may now be seen as better value. "If you go into a specialty coffee shop in London and get a coffee, versus a coffee in Costa Coffee, the difference [in price] between that cup and the specialty coffee is much smaller than it used to be".
From what I've read, don't expect price relief anytime soon. It is already said that in the long term, climate change already poses serious challenges for the global coffee industry.
A 2022 study "Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change" by Roman Grüter et al, affiliated with the Institute of Natural Resource Sciences, Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Wädenswil, Switzerland and published in Plos One had concluded that even if we drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the area most highly suited for growing coffee could decline by 50% by 2050.
One measure to future-proof the industry that has the support of Croce is a "green premium" – a small tax levied on coffee given to farmers to invest in regenerative agricultural practices, which help protect and sustain the viability of farmlands.
So while the durian is partly responsible for price rises now – a changing climate may ultimately strain the affordability of coffee in the years to come.