I read with disappointment and alarm that in an April 10 interview with CNN, American philanthropist Melinda Gates (left) conveyed her belief that the coronavirus pandemic will have the worst impact in the developing world. It’s a common and all-too-familiar refrain.
Gates, it seems, decided to single out Africa – she eagerly asserted that she foresees bodies lying around in the street of African countries.
A day later, it was announced that the United States, where Gates is from, had surpassed Italy in terms of the number of Covid-19 dead – and today, the world knows it has the highest infections and fatalities in the world!
Casting aside that instance of irony and hypocrisy, a United Nations Economic Commission for Africa report in April had likewise painted a doomsday scenario: Anywhere between 300,000 and 3.3 million Africans could lose their lives as a direct result of Covid-19.
The harrowing prediction of colossal numbers of cases and deaths in Africa is difficult to reconcile with the present growth rate and the reality on the ground.
In my post yesterday titled “Covid-19 is Still Very Much a Serious Threat”, I had mentioned CGTN Africa’s report of 52,000 cases and 2,000 deaths in Africa. And this is for a continent with 1.2 billion inhabitants.
Take one example, i.e. the UNECA numbers. If we were to take their lowest projection and marry that with the present growth trajectory, African nations would need to see at least 7.6 million confirmed infections to be able to reach 300,000 fatalities; 84 million people will have to be infected continent-wide for the UNECA projected 3.3 million deaths to happen.
Hmmm, it makes you wonder if there is any actual benefit in the modelling that “experts” churned out to produce scary stats on Covid-19. And I’m not only referring to Africa but in other places too.
Of course, many of these "experts" will be quick to decry low rates of infection as being attributed to the lack of testing capacity. And they would point to New Zealand, South Korea and Taiwan as exemplary countries which do mass testing and hence, yield low infections and fatalities.
That is nonsense because if the low numbers are only a result of the lack of testing, African countries should be seeing increased rates of hospitalisations and for sure, deaths, which has not been the case thus far.
Reckless predictions of mass deaths in Africa are myopic as well as problematic for reasons beyond inaccuracy. They assume that nothing that African countries do can mitigate the spread of the disease and prevent high death tolls. They presuppose that Africans will be happy to just sit back and become passive victims of yet another viral outbreak.
But many African countries have long experience in dealing with infectious diseases and by now, they would have developed know-how that many Western countries might not have. And many African leaders are also not unaware of their fragile healthcare systems – unlike some of their Western counterparts.
African governments understand very well that their most effective strategy in the battle against Covid-19 is prevention and applying lessons learned from previous and/or ongoing outbreaks.
Uganda, for example, has already redirected its screening efforts and systems from combatting Ebola into its current interventions against Covid-19.
Even before the country registered its first case on March 22, President Yoweri Museveni (left) put in place travel restrictions and social distancing measures that advanced into full lockdown.
Rwanda was quick to react, too. Shortly after the outbreak was confirmed in January, the government organized a committee to evaluate and bolster preparedness and response to the pandemic and trained about 500 health workers, including laboratory technicians to cope with a potential national epidemic.
And did you know that following an appeal for help from Italy, Somalia, defying the usual media stereotypes about the country, had sent a team of twenty doctors to its former colonial power to assist the European country cope with the ravages of Covid-19?
An Al Jazeera piece written by Caleb Okereke (a Nigerian journalist and filmmaker based in Kampala, Uganda) and Kelsey Nielsen (an American social worker and activist working in Kampala, Uganda) offers us some insights into why the Western world’s perception of a continent that they claim will be devastated by Covid-19 is duplicitous, incorrect and misleading:
“The view that… all African countries will suffer the same fate is deeply rooted in colonial ideology, which dismisses an entire continent as inherently backward and dysfunctional. (And) the legacy of colonialism perpetuated the lie that Black bodies are to be pitied.
…The problem with the UNECA and Gates's projections of the impact Covid-19 will have on the African continent is that they strip African countries of their agency and redirect focus on providing charity rather than supporting already existing and well-functioning epidemiological responses”.
Sad but true.
I can buy into the argument that there will be African countries where the Covid-19 outbreak will have a devastating impact – but as the authors of the said artcle had observed: "...painting with a wide brush a whole continent of 54 countries and dismissing efforts of African governments to deal with the situation is simply wrong.
Why do we not see the same broad strokes applied to continents like Europe and North America? Western countries are able to recognize nuance and complexities within themselves, acknowledging that no two countries are exactly alike. If outcomes of this epidemic in Europe and North America vary greatly from country to country, why is it not possible to assume that the same would be the case in Africa?”
I’m betting Africa will fare better in their fight against Covid-19 than the US and Europe.