The United States and Iran failed to produce a peace agreement after Saturday's marathon 21-hour negotiation session in Pakistan's capital.
The US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance and the Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf were supposed to discuss how to advance a ceasefire already threatened by deep disagreements and Israel’s continued attacks against Lebanon.
One big issue that came to the fore, it is said, was the US demand that Iran relinquish its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz as well as agree to "joint management" of the strategic waterway, guaranteeing American access. But the Iranian negotiators completely rejected the proposal.
At the same time, the US tried to sneak into the narrow waterway on that same day itself. But its destroyer pulled back as soon as it received a "30-minute warning" from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to turn back or be targeted.
While Iranian media claimed a "forced retreat", US official sources promoted a different storyline, reporting that their two US guided-missile destroyers, the USS Frank E Petersen Jr (DDG-121) and the USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112), had, in fact, successfully transited the Strait.
True or not, the above is only a sub-plot.
The whole session seems to me, to be more about posturing than making progress. I get the impression that both parties are content to stare each other down, and neither side is willing to blink. (I can understand Iran's position because I don't agree they should negotiate in the first place). In the end, the US declared the negotiations to be inconclusive.
The US had flown Vance halfway across the world to Islamabad. The Americans demanded everything they couldn't achieve through war. Iran shoved a big 'no' in their faces. The talks ended. And on Sunday, the Vice President went home empty-handed.
Methinks, there will be another round of talks. The Americans will want to crawl back for that “peace deal” because Donald Trump desperately needs a diplomatic exit strategy.
[The alternative, of course, is a return to war. If Trump persists in being belligerent, foolhardy and reckless, I guess, you can expect war. But you wonder, for how long? War is terribly expensive; moreover, both the US and Israel have depleting stockpiles of interceptor missiles].
TBH, I don't know what actually transpired. There is an obvious lack of congruity, clarity and transparency. From what I understand from Vance at the press conference before he left Islamabad, is that there is only one sticking point left – the need for Iran to give an unconditional commitment not to produce nuclear weapons.
But the Iranians were ready to give this commitment in Geneva, Switzerland six weeks ago before the Israelis and Americans attacked. Meaning, through the pair's reckless stupidity, that willingness has now turned to unwillingness.
Whatever the case may be, this is not an insurmountable problem. Trump may need this one concession to be able to tell his domestic audience that he did not raise the white flag, when actually the US has been thoroughly defeated.
Therefore, I take it from what Vance said that basically the Americans have already caved in to Iran’s 9 other proposals, including total control of the Strait of Hormuz and the entitlement to charge tolls on passing ships.
I think Iran is holding out for now on the nuclear commitment so that it can cement its gains and make the Americans become more desperate. Every day Hormuz is closed brings the entire world closer to the precipice and if the world economy crashes, the world will blame the two war criminals, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Eventually, I reckon, after the agreements on the other nine Iranian points have been vetted and inked, the Iranians will compromise and give the written guarantee that they won’t pursue nuclear weapons, but would be entitled to enrich uranium, which is the inalienable right of every nation.
Iran does not need a nuclear bomb. The Strait of Hormuz is already a more powerful weapon!