US chipmaking equipment supplier Lam Research on Wednesday warned of a $2 billion to $2.5 billion revenue hit in 2023 from Washington's latest export controls on advanced semiconductors and equipment to China, which covers about 30 percent of the US company's sales, Reuters reported.
Lam Research represent the latest chip firm to forecast a sales loss due to the US' chip ban. Last week, Applied Materials estimated a $250 million to $550 million drop in net sales in the quarter ending October 30, with a further impact expected in the coming months.
The latest round of US tech crackdown on China is certainly going to affect sales and revenues and even impact the global chip supply chain.
And that is not all. According to Prakash Nanda writing in The EurAsian Times on October 16, the clampdown bars “US persons, including US citizens and permanent residents", from supporting the "development or production" of advanced chips at Chinese factories without a license.
In other words, this latest US export controls have, for the first time, extended to people and not only organizations or companies.
In fact, Wall Street Journal has claimed that US chip equipment suppliers have withdrawn dozens of employees with essential expertise and paused business activities at Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., China’s leading memory chip maker.
The US will do what it wants to do. It is no secret that as it repeatedly tightens curbs on high-tech exports to China, especially in the semiconductor sector, in an apparent attempt to contain China's independent development and breakthroughs in science and technology, it is US chip companies that will suffer.
Even before the latest US crackdown moves, chip firms are already in the doldrums. Of the 15 largest chip companies reporting for 3Q22, ten are expected to report decelerations in revenue growth compared with 2Q22, according to a Wall Street Journal report last week.
Their plight worsened after the Biden administration unveiled "the most aggressive" export control rules earlier this month, aiming to curb sales of advanced semiconductors and equipment to China.
China is the world's largest market for chips, and it imported about $400 billion worth of semiconductors in 2021, accounting for nearly 60 percent of the global chip market. US high-tech companies are the biggest beneficiaries of the massive Chinese demand, which is their biggest source of profits. It is unthinkable for any chipmaker to lose such a large market. It would greatly affect their spending plans and in turn cause an indirect loss of sales for semiconductor equipment suppliers like Lam Research and Applied Materials.
With the global semiconductor sector facing a plunge in sales of personal computers and smartphones amid recession worries, Washington's latest chip ban has seriously destabilized the global industrial chain. The policy, which appears to completely ignore the impact on the wider chip industry, seems more like the Biden administration flexing its muscles and playing tough with China in the run-up to the US mid-term elections. It was a political decision and a geopolitical gambit that is sure to backfire on the US itself.
Far from ensuring the country’s dominance in the chip sector, the export controls could hurt US tech companies the most in terms of sales, and curtail their research and development investment.
From China's perspective, it has a huge market, and it is doubtful whether the US can use unilateral executive orders to prevent non-US chip companies from conducting normal cooperation and trade with China. If non-US companies don't join, unilateral US bans will actually undercut US companies' competitiveness by depriving them of the Chinese market.
US restrictions will only accelerate the development of China's chip sector, because the Chinese market won't wait for the US to come to its senses. And it’s only a matter of time, the Chinese chip sector catches up and becomes self-reliant.