BN and PH Both Confident

Barisan Nasional are convinced they will win GE14. 

In fact, if you believe in their bold pronouncements – which to me are way overblown and hyped out of proportion – they will continue to stay put in Putrajaya.

Based on The Malaysian Insight report dated April 10, 2017, one internal analysis done for BN in February that year gave us their best estimation of the number of federal seats they will be expected to win, i.e. 128. 

At worst, BN can win 122 seats. 

Both numbers are enough for BN to hold onto the government but many in the coalition are “working” to get better numbers – as both forecasts are lower than the 132 seats they currently have in their possession. 

A breakdown of the forecasts show BN are still confident of winning 50 federal seats in their “bank deposit” states of Sabah and Sarawak. They now hold 46 out of the 56 federal seats in both Borneo states. 

Another report eight months later showed BN in an even stronger position. 

In The Malaysian Insight report published December 12, 2017, Najib Razak had supposedly informed his inner circle that he is very confident that BN can take 140-160 seats in the 222-seat Parliament. 

One can assume Najib is bent on going all out to win decisively. Whatever it takes. 

Pakatan Harapan, on the other hand, declared that they could win GE14 because 115 seats are within their sights. Meaning 102 seats in Peninsular Malaysia, 8 in Sabah and 5 in Sarawak. 

This sureness came from the Invoke surveys that involved 5,000 voters who were randomly chosen throughout the country. 

Additionally, Invoke canvassed the sentiments of 1,500 voters in marginal seats, which are expected to see close fights between BN and PH. 

The national survey was conducted from December 05 to 13, 2017 while the marginal seats study was carried out from November 06 to December 15. 

[Note: Invoke is a think tank and voter mobilisation outfit led by Pandan MP and PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli]. 

Presently, BN hold 132 parliamentary seats, PH (70), PAS (15) and Parti Warisan Sabah (two). 

Now who can we believe? The answer lies in the hands of every Malaysian voter. 

As I have said, every vote counts!