Big Data Predictions for GE14

On March 09, 2018, Rafizi Ramli revealed that Pakatan Harapan will be unable to form the next federal government; Barisan Nasional will still hold sway. 

His Invoke used big data to predict GE14 outcomes for Peninsular Malaysia – and from the prognoses, the end-result for Malaysia has been mixed. Meaning, good and bad. 

Based on Invoke’s Big Data

Good that Pakatan Harapan will win 89 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia, putting it ahead of BN’s 76 parliamentary seats – should there be multi-cornered fights across the board. 

The predictions did not factor in Sabah and Sarawak, however – but it is widely expected that the two East Malaysian states will be backing BN. 

For sure, Sarawak is BN’s vote bank. Most pundits believe BN will retain not just the 25 seats won in GE13 but will possibly add more. 

And over in Sabah, BN are expected to still retain the state – in spite of Warisan’s challenge. Sabah has 26 seats including Labuan – which means to form the state government, they will need to win 14 seats minimum to give them a simple majority. 

If we accept the simple calculations above, BN can possibly accumulate a total of 115 parliamentary seats (i.e. 76+25+14 = 115). 

Basing on their current total number of 222 parliamentary seat, Najib Razak will only need to capture 112 seats to govern the country. 

If Invoke are "right" ("I really hope not!") in their calculations, Barisan Nasional will lord over us for another five years! 

Based on Invoke’s Big Data 

At the state level, it is good that PH will retain Selangor and Penang, and they will add Kedah, Johor and Perak to the list of states under their control. 

However, BN will retain Terengganu and Pahang and even succeed in regaining Kelantan from PAS after 28 years. 

Negeri Sembilan and Melaka will be hung states with equal representation from BN and PH in the state assemblies. 

Note: The Invoke predictions were based on the seats after the redelineation exercise by the Election Commission. Interestingly, Invoke data showed that PH support among the Malays, Chinese and Indians stands at 14.1%, 82% and 40% respectively as of February 2018. 

Rafizi said Malay support had been increasing steadily each month since December. He noted what was more significant in the same three months was the decline of Malay support for BN by 6% a month since December from 41.1% to 28.5%. 

So will there be a Malay tsunami or not? 

Or even better, a Malaysian tsunami? 

Bersatu's Muhyiddin Yassin had referred to a “tsunami rakyat” (people’s tsunami), an anti-BN wave that is not dependant on one single race. (As reported by FMT on March 06, 2018). 

[Background info: The use of the term “tsunami” in politics came about after the 2013 general election, when Prime Minister Najib Razak said BN’s losses of many key urban seats were due to a “Chinese tsunami”]. 

Things are pretty much fluid now and I believe PH are making small but steady progress in persuading the electorate they deserve a chance to be in government. 

Therefore, I disagree with Invoke because a general election is much more than a computation of numbers. When sentiment can be influenced, nothing is set in concrete. I still believe that Pakatan Harapan can be victorious in GE14. 

Whatever the case may be, this makes for a cliffhanger of an election!