As Russia's Special Military Operation reaches its 1000th day today, Russia warns that the use of US long-range missiles by Ukraine will lead to "an appropriate and tangible" response.
Any attack inside Russian territory "would represent the direct involvement of the United States and its satellites in hostilities against Russia", a foreign ministry statement declared.
Already, Ukraine has had US ATACMS with a range of 300km (190 miles) – as well as UK and French Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles of a similar range – but the Western allies had barred Kiev from striking Russia with them.
The above threat is in response to US President Joe Biden authorizing the use of the missiles on targets in Russia in a major change of US policy and a deliberate escalation – two months before he is due to leave the White House. At least, according to two senior US officials familiar with the decision. However, it is not clear if his successor, President-elect Donald Trump, was consulted or whether he will stick by the decision, having promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
This approval to allow the use of the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, inside Russia had been under consideration for months. US officials had been divided on the wisdom of allowing the new capability. Some had concerns about intensifying the war, while others worried about dwindling stockpiles of the weapons.
The US refused to even provide ATACMS to Ukraine for the first two years of the SMO, in part because of readiness concerns as the powerful missiles require time and complex components to produce. But Biden secretly approved the transfer of the long-range ATACMS missiles in February for use inside Ukrainian territory, and the US delivered the missiles in April.
Besides, the Biden administration had rebuffed Ukraine’s requests to change their position on the long-range missiles, but like so many other ostensibly rigid policies established over nearly three years of war – including on Patriot missiles, Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets – the White House ultimately relented.
Ukraine's President [V]olodymyr [Z]elensky (left) responding to the news had indicated on Sunday that there may be no formal announcement of the US assent – "the missiles will speak for themselves", he said on Telegram.
In the meantime, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally lowered the threshold for his country's use of nuclear weapons Tuesday.
The Kremlin announced that Putin had approved an updated nuclear doctrine – a document that governs how Russia uses its nuclear arsenal – including the declaration that Moscow The revised doctrine states that nuclear strikes could be justified by “aggression against the Russian Federation... by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state”.
It also identifies threats such as “the deployment by a potential adversary of missile defense systems, medium- and short-range ballistic missiles, precision non-nuclear and hypersonic weapons, strike drones and directed energy weapons” as grounds for potential nuclear retaliation.
The document emphasizes that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to any weapons of mass destruction used against it or its allies, or in the event of aggression using conventional weapons that threaten the sovereignty or territorial integrity of Russia or Belarus.
The revised nuclear order also states that countries that provide space to such parties to prepare and launch an attack against Russia are likewise subject to the policy as well.
According to nuclear arms control expert Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN’s Institute for Disarmament Research, a key change in Russia’s updated doctrine is the language shift from stating that aggression “puts the very existence of the state in jeopardy” to saying that it “poses a critical threat to the sovereignty and/or territorial integrity” of the state.
And under Russia’s nuclear doctrine, decisions to use nuclear weapons remain at the discretion of the president. The updates to the doctrine take effect immediately.
I can't wait for [Z]elensky to give the order to fire Western-supplied missiles deep into Russian territory. This may oblige Putin to strike back with an usurious ferocity and out-and-out carnage begins. And not necessarily only in Ukraine!
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