Covid-19 Cases Top 1.8 Million

At least 1,853,155 Covid-19 cases and more than 114,000 deaths have now been reported worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University. (Note: This doesn't represent the total number of active cases, but rather the number of infections since the pandemic began). 

The numbers are burgeoning. But here’s the thing – the actual stats from this pandemic are believed to be much, much higher. 

I read today that Italian mayors told CNN their information indicated the actual Covid-19 death toll in northern Italy may be more than twice the numbers officially reported. 

In one video, it was highlighted that one newspaper – L'Eco di Bergamo, an Italian language daily in Bergamo, Italy – which usually publishes one page of obituaries, maximum two, saw a sudden rise with as many as 13 pages a day of obituaries last month. 

Meaning, the numbers issued by the authorities for public consumption are not even necessarily correct. 

This is more than just a reporting issue. If the infection and death numbers are not accurate in the first place and the number-crunching researchers use the data for their modeling to simulate different scenarios to work out all of the possible outcomes – the analyses they churn out may well be flawed. After all, models are only as good as the data that goes into them. 

As Stanford University’s Dr. John Ioannidis (left) says “When you have a model involving exponential growth, if you make a small mistake in the base numbers – you end up with a final number that could be off 10-fold, 30-fold, even 50-fold”. 

A case in point. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, based at the University of Washington in Seattle and who are the leading collector and analyst of global disease data in the world, had forecast Covid-19 deaths in the UK would be the highest in Europe at 66,000. 

The Guardian reported on Saturday that the IHME now predict 37,494 deaths in the UK by August 04 – although they said the figure could be anywhere between 26,000 and 62,500. And despite the lower figure, they still project the UK will have the highest death toll in Europe. 

That 66,000 number has been disputed by other scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. 

One of them, Imperial College London’s Prof Neil Ferguson (right) said last week when the prognosis was published that the IHME figure is twice as high as it should have been. 

The IHME didn’t confine their forecasts to just the UK. Italy is predicted to have the second highest death toll, at 20,000. Spain and the Netherlands are projected to have 18,000 each and France around 16,000. 

Just because "experts" produce numbers, it doesn't mean they are right in their prognosis. Actually, we really don't know and I have also this sneaking suspicion that they also don't know. They are good at hiding behind statistics. 

Compare the above-mentioned IHME numbers with the reported numbers below and make your own conclusion!

   

I am mindful that whatever purpose stats serve – at the end of the day, they are nothing more than numbers. Que sera sera, whatever will be, will be.