Friday, April 5, 2013

Is the Johore BN Fortress Impregnable?

















The battle lines have been drawn. UMNO is upbeat about securing two-thirds majority, if you read the mainstream press. Even the supposedly intelligent Saifuddin Abdullah insisted that BN will secure huge support from “middle ground” voters. (The Sun, April 05, 2013, p 2). Needless to say, Najib Razak already expressed confidence that BN will stay put in Putrajaya!

But Malaysiakini carried an April 04, 2013 report that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) have a high possibility to win GE13 – if they can overturn seven percent of BN voters in 2008. This means that PR would be able to gain an additional 38 seats giving them a total of 120 parliamentary seats to form the next federal government.

And this brings us to that interesting sideshow about DAP’s Lim Kit Siang decision to contest in Johore’s Gelang Patah. If PR is only able to swing seven percent of votes from BN, Lim Kit Siang will lose in Gelang Patah. But if they can obtain a swing of an additional one percent, making it a total eight percent of the votes, PR will be able to win eight more seats (including Gelang Patah) giving them a total of 128 seats – a very comfortable majority in the new government.

Hence the Gelang Patah parliamentary seat acts as the political barometer on whether PR could form the next government.

Many have questioned DAP’s strategy to cast loose their big guns to do battle in the BN fortress of Johore. It is impregnable, they say. I believe it is not only a wise strategy but a very necessary one. I say, take the offensive. Or as Dr Wong Chin Huat wrote in the Edge Malaysia that to move popular leaders from their current constituencies to constituencies held by their BN opponents is strategically logical (Webpage http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/political-news/233860-highlight-analysis-right-strategy-for-kit-siang-anwar-to-attack-bn-strongholds.html, published March 22, 2013).

First, it increases the parties’ chances of “conquering” new territories. Second, it vacates safe seats for new leaders to inherit. Third, the audacious assaults made by these leaders are likely to excite voters and hence “call out” more voters to polling booths. This may precipitate a spillover to other constituencies.

















Lim won’t be alone. There will be other formidable DAP titans who will join him. Not to mention impressive candidates from PKR and PAS.

Change is coming! Even a whole kampung has quit Umno…saying they don't want UMNO! Kg Mohd Nor, Parit Sulong in Batu Pahat, Johore has clearly made public their political choice (Webpage http://weehingthong.wordpress.com/2013/03/16/lim-kit-kiang-heads-assault-on-bns-johore/).


I truly believe Malaysians are ready for change. Ini kali lah! Ubah!

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