Friday, March 15, 2013

GE13 Notes

I am reproducing the Morgan Stanley Research on GE13 not the whole report but the outline of the five key things investors may need to know:

#1: What’s upcoming? Setting the context The 13th General Elections are due to be held soon in Malaysia. Parliament needs to be dissolved no later than April 2013, and elections need to be held no later than 60 days from date of its dissolution.

#2: Which are the key states to monitor? Key states to monitor are Kedah, Penang, Selangor, Perak, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak.

#3: Election scenarios and macro implications. BN Parliamentary seat share of >63% would be seen as a positive surprise for investors. BN Parliamentary seat share of < mid 50% would be seen as a negative risk event by investors and could have implications for leadership and government stability. The political landscape will determine momentum of reform agenda.

#4: Policy comparison: Pakatan Rakyat (PR) vs Barisan Nasional (BN). The broad economic thrust of PR policy is fairly similar to that of BN. However, PR campaign proposals have a more leftist slant and also focus on policy devolvement to state governments, more geographically balanced economic development, and strengthening of decentralization in Sabah and Sarawak.

#5: What to expect in UMNO Party elections UMNO elections have to be held by Jun-2013. The president of UMNO is historically the prime minister, and hence, this will determine whether there is leadership stability. Forthcoming elections will take place amid constitutional amendments which makes the process more democratic.

Thanks to Dr Nagiah Ramasamy for sharing.

No comments: