Monday, January 2, 2012

GE13 Predictions

Putting aside RPK's broad hint that BN will win GE13 - on Thursday, Praba Ganesan writing in The Malaysian Insider examined the Malaysian political landscape and made some bold predictions about the approaching GE13. His informed prognosis are given below:

"Pundits will not be surprised if the northwest turns into a Pakatan surge. Penang is destined to stay with Pakatan. The parliamentary seats will be status quo. Kedah will copy Penang, and Perlis is on a knife edge.

Kelantan is a safe seat, and the vagaries of Terengganu UMNO politics does leave more questions than answers. UMNO may keep the state, but only a two-seat majority in the parliamentary count.

Pahang will be Peninsular Malaysia’s battleground. There were urban wins for Pakatan, but it is the reach to Felda areas that will be telling. UMNO to keep Pahang, but to lose more ground.

Perak and Selangor will go Pakatan, the first is a bigger call but a call has to be made.

With the expectation of a slim Pakatan win in Negri Sembilan, that leaves Malacca and Johor as solid UMNO states.

All eyes will turn to East Malaysia. It is a mighty ask to expect a lion’s share of the parliamentary seats there, but Pakatan might broach the 20-seat mark, though it might end up being 15 which means that would reduce BN’s majority there!"

I would dearly love to believe him because when this happens, it shall represent a big and bold step forward for Pakatan and which builds on the successes of GE12. I am not giving predictions yet and I intend to keep my cards close to my chest, for now.

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